Vietnam's banks brace for tighter lending and rising rates in 2026

Vietnam's banking sector faces a shift in 2026 as lending rates climb and economic policies tighten. Since January, most banks have raised borrowing costs by roughly 3 percentage points compared to 2025. The changes come alongside a government push for double-digit economic growth, supported by a VNĐ1 quadrillion (US$38 billion) public investment plan to boost liquidity.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set a 15% credit growth target for 2026, down from 19% the previous year. This slowdown aims to steer funds toward manufacturing, trade, and services while curbing speculative lending. Meanwhile, deposit rates are projected to rise by 2-3 percentage points, pushing up banks' funding expenses.

Higher lending rates could strain borrowers' ability to repay, raising concerns over asset quality and bad debts. Experts warn that weaker repayment capacity may widen gaps between banks, favouring those with strong governance, scale, and policy backing. Institutions like MB, VPBank, and HDBank—already ahead in restructuring—are likely to gain from incentives such as expanded credit quotas. With monetary policy space limited, fiscal measures are taking centre stage. The government's VNĐ1 quadrillion investment plan seeks to stimulate economic activity and ease liquidity pressures. Nguyễn Văn Trữ, head of analysis at National Securities Company (NSI), stressed that macroeconomic management will shape the sector's trajectory in the coming year.

Banks must now adapt to costlier funding and stricter credit controls. Those with robust restructuring efforts and policy support stand to expand faster, while others may struggle with rising bad debts. The sector's performance will hinge on balancing growth targets with tighter financial conditions.