CLARITY Act's fading odds leave XRP's future in regulatory limbo

The CLARITY Act remains the most closely watched regulatory development in the crypto sector this year. Its potential passage would resolve long-standing uncertainty around XRP’s legal status. Yet its chances of becoming law have dimmed in recent months. Earlier in 2026, prediction markets gave the bill a 73% chance of success. That figure has since fallen to around 42%. The decline follows a backlash over a specific provision, resistance from the banking lobby, and a shrinking path to 60 Senate votes.

An anti-trafficking coalition has also weighed in. It urged Senate leaders to reconsider a decentralised-finance clause in the act, warning it could undermine protections against illicit activity. Time is running short, with the Senate’s August recess serving as a practical deadline for passage.

If approved, the act would classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law. This could trigger billions in institutional ETF investments. Some of this impact is already reflected in XRP’s current price, which has traded in a tight range. Failure or delay of the CLARITY Act would remove a key catalyst for XRP. Without it, institutional ETF inflows could reverse, likely pushing the token’s price lower. The bill’s fate now hangs on a narrow and closing legislative window.