Markets brace for volatile week as U.S.-Iran deal rumors and inflation data loom

Financial markets are gearing up for a busy week, with key economic data and geopolitical developments in focus. U.S. stocks saw a $400 billion boost last Friday after rumours of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement circulated. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed mixed movements, reflecting uncertainty ahead of major reports due later this week. Markets will kick off the week with attention on possible details of a U.S.-Iran deal. If confirmed, such an agreement could ease oil-related risks, potentially lifting Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto-linked stocks.

U.S. equity and bond markets will remain closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Trading resumes on Tuesday, but the real focus shifts to Thursday’s economic releases. April’s personal income and spending data, along with the closely watched PCE inflation figure, will be published. The second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and corporate profits will also arrive, offering further insight into economic strength.

Higher-than-expected inflation could dampen hopes for interest rate cuts, bolstering the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. This scenario might add pressure to cryptocurrencies, which often struggle in a high-rate environment. Meanwhile, stronger GDP figures could calm growth concerns but reinforce expectations that rates will stay elevated for longer.

Thursday will also bring April’s new home sales data, providing another piece of the economic puzzle. At press time, Bitcoin hovered around $76,700, up 2% over the past 24 hours but down 2% over the past week. Ethereum traded near $2,100, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the week’s key releases. The coming days will test market reactions to inflation, growth, and geopolitical news. A confirmed U.S.-Iran deal could ease oil-market tensions, while Thursday’s economic reports will shape expectations for interest rates and risk assets. Investors will be watching closely for signs of whether inflation remains stubborn or shows signs of cooling.