Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $100K Soon—But Warns of Geopolitical Risks

Arthur Hayes has shared his latest views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and broader market liquidity. The former BitMEX CEO sees geopolitical tensions and dollar liquidity—not regulation—as the key drivers for crypto prices in the near term. His recent investments and forecasts also highlight a shift toward decentralised trading platforms like Hyperliquid. Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin, predicting a surge to $100,000 after the northern hemisphere’s summer. He even set a longer-term target of $125,000 by the end of 2026. However, he warned that escalating conflicts in Iran could either accelerate or delay this rally.

According to Hayes, wartime financing through commercial banks boosts liquidity conditions, indirectly supporting Bitcoin’s climb. He dismissed regulatory concerns, calling the proposed CLARITY Act irrelevant to the cryptocurrency’s upward trajectory. Instead, he emphasised that dollar liquidity trends would shape Bitcoin’s performance more than any new rules. His outlook for Ethereum is less optimistic. Hayes suggested the second-largest cryptocurrency might lag behind Bitcoin in the current liquidity cycle. This view aligns with his recent portfolio adjustments, where he reduced exposure to both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Hayes confirmed investing over $1 million in Hyperliquid, a permissionless derivatives platform. He described it as a venue for trading various contracts without restrictions. The move signals his confidence in decentralised finance infrastructure over traditional crypto assets.

Hayes’ projections place Bitcoin at $100,000 in the coming months, with potential for $125,000 by late 2026. His focus on Hyperliquid reflects a strategic pivot toward decentralised trading systems. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and liquidity flows remain his primary concerns for market timing.